Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Tommy Atkins
Vaccination
The trouble with vaccines is that people have short memories. I attribute this generation's contempt for government regulation to a lack of institutional memory to remind people why government instituted regulations in the first place. We have social security disability and old age pensions today because people starved without them, literally, in the 1930s. US banks used to be tightly regulated because bank failure was commonplace and so the federal government created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to protect the savings of working people. Vaccination programs were a public health response to sweeping waves of disease that killed and crippled.
Dr Walter Reed, an army surgeon figured out yellow fever was mosquito-borne and his discoveries permitted the Panama Canal to reach completion.His work also paved the way for huge public health works to make modern cities safe. New Orleans, Rome, Key West, were all cities subject to outbreaks of deadly yellow fever, until respective governments removed the breeding grounds of mosquitoes. Today dengue fever has made a reappearance in Key West and the advice remains the same as in Dr Reed's day: get rid of stagnant fresh water to eliminate mosquito habitat, and because people aren't used to dealing with deadly disease the advice falls on deaf ears. I contracted dengue when I was on assignment in El Salvador twenty years ago. Salvadorans died, I got a horrible fever, and I discovered why they used to call it "breakbone fever," such was the pain. Dengue is also transmitted by mosquitoes and El Salvador wracked by civil war was in no position to carry out public works programs.
Louis Pasteur in France followed up vaccination work with discoveries in the field of anthrax and rabies and saved a child's life with an experimental vaccine. In 19th century France, and elsewhere, stray dogs were a feared threat as one bite from a rabid animal promised a horrible, writhing, foaming death. Rabies was terrifying and Pasteur's inoculation made him the object of adoration.
These are just a few of the giants, the most well known giants in the field of public medicine in the past couple of centuries. Their work is how we as a species figured out how to eradicate ghastly diseases. I well remember young kids coughing their chests out with "whooping" cough, a hacking chest condition so severe it sounded like the victims were literally going to split their young bodies apart from coughing. I remember spending an eternity in a dark isolated room with measles, I remember eating a sugar lump to prevent polio. Nowadays it seems no one remembers any of it. Yesterday I went to get my free swine flu vaccine, thinking grateful thoughts about Jenner, Pasteur and Reed among others, grateful we still have some sort of public health department in the US, and at home my wife tells me most of her students aren't vaccinated because parents fear the vaccine. Most of my colleagues refused the free vaccine- and half of the twelve of us are sick, coughing and hacking. One has swine flu and is in isolation at home "sounding like death." Hyperbole I know but swine flu is horrid and why would anyone refuse a vaccine? Because it's a government plot they say, because vaccine causes autism, because people are uneducated, ungrateful and deserve what they get. God, if you exist, please give me strength.
Pierce Lane
I was in the neighborhood to photograph Pierce Lane, a slip of a street that runs alongside the industrial powerhouse here which is Key West Chemical Supply:
The north side of Pierce Lane is dominated by Key West Chemical's warehouse:
And looming above the warehouse the downtown cell phone tower that gives the whole place an even more industrial look. The only other such tower serving Key West is on Stock Island, though there are plans being discussed about putting another one in on North Roosevelt Boulevard:
On the other side of the lane the pool chemical company was ventilating the store room with a big fan. A reminder that even in November it is necessary to throw the doors open on an overcast 80 degree afternoon (27C) to keep the chemical laden air moving:



Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Peak Oil Peaking?
What is it about the Fall? I'm looking forward to Thanksgiving with friends and the rest of the world seems determined to pile on the bad news. North and South Korea trade shots at sea, New York State seems ready to follow California into a State of Bankruptcy and an official at the International Energy Agency tells the British Guardian newspaper we are running out of affordable, easily mined oil faster than our leaders want us to know... Commentators are now asking if we already for $6 a gallon gas in the US. Short answer to that is No! as embarrassing as that is to admit- we are too poor just now. This is what the Guardian was reporting yesterday in London in reference to the IEA report out today, bearing in mind the world currently uses around 82 million barrels per day as best as they can tell us:

Terry Macalister guardian.co.uk, Monday 9 November 2009 21.30 GMT Article history
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.
'There's suspicion the IEA has been influenced by the US. In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.
Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.
A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.
The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."




