Tropical Storm Elsa

I am not one to underrate the power of a tropical weather system as I have seen enough of them blow over to know how bad they can be. But Tropical Storm Elsa has done not much to impress me.

After a fast gallop across the Atlantic the storm slowed down, passed over land masses in the Caribbean and after one moment as an actual hurricane, the tropical storm has stayed well under 74 mph. 

I must say I have been impressed by our community leadership facing off against this potential buzz kill. After a year of pandemic tourism starvation no one wanted to see Fourth of July wrecked by some rain so the response to the threat was muted. An advised evacuation of mobile homes they said, suggesting residents stay with people in more solid homes. 

Years ago the threat of a storm led to shut downs, evacuations and a loss of business. Then the storm blew through and nothing much happened. That got old. 

We've had some crappy storms. Wilma in 2005 followed Katrina which sideswiped the keys and destroyed New Orleans so when we had flooding later that year we were all bit freaked out. There was money in those days before 2008 and car dealers set up tents on Stock island to help replace the ten thousand cars drowned by Wilma. Trash was everywhere but it was nothing compared to Irma in 2017. That was a hurricane for the ages and that I don't want to live through again.

Tropical Storm Elsa is scheduled to arrive overnight between Monday, yesterday and today Tuesday. 50 mph winds over Cuba may strengthen a bit but the National Hurricane Center in Miami says the eye of the storm will slide westward and pass over the Marquesas Keys 15 miles west of Key West.

Tourists have been leaving for sure, RVs and boats on trailers have headed for the mainland but this isn't an evacuation situation. I worked overtime this weekend and we got a few calls from people wondering if the Keys were evacuated. Really? Gas stations have been busy but a tropical storm of these proportions didn't stop fireworks on the fourth (and Rusty was none too happy about that).

And yet we see people parking their cars on the approaches to the bridges on the Overseas Highway. This is a tactic deployed to get cars above potential flooding when conditions merit. Even if we get the full six inches of rain predicted this doesn't seem necessary to me. Whatever they want, hurricane preparation is more to make people feel better than to actually out-think a force of nature.

I looked south on my way home from my last dog walk with Rusty (we got soaked in a sudden shower which didn't stop us) the seas were flat as expected. Havana was getting the rain and we were getting a little wind. 

I had thought about spending the night at work so I drove in aboard Gannet 2 thinking I might hunker in the van and be at work for my six o'clock shift Tuesday morning. In the event the afternoon was so still and calm and utterly dull I would have felt like a total idiot setting up camp with a Lean Cuisine in the police station parking lot with my wife, my dog and a proper kitchen with pork chops and roast potatoes 25 miles away. I drove home.

I drove in to work this morning at five in the expected rain and wind and the Fiat 500 handled the conditions just fine. It was actually quite pleasant having the Overseas Highway to myself. Put some rain on the road and everyone starts to act like it's a snowdrift crawling along and peering through the windshield like modern tires can't handle rain . City offices are closed and most people get a post Fourth of July pause today. As usual the National Hurricane Center predictions came through, furthermore we never even had a power outage as Keys Energy has built a system designed to brush off mere tropical storms. They are now warning of floods on the mainland and I see pictures of people stuffing sandbags. Much fun no doubt.

I hope Tropical Storm Elsa is the worst we get between now and November.

Dealing With Hurricanes

How to deal with a hurricane, there's a subject no one can answer. These people figured Hurricane Eta, a Category One storm (74mph sustained, albeit briefly in this case) might flood their streets so they followed the time honored strategy of parking away from home at the highest parking spots in these low lying islands: approaches to the Highway One bridges.

We got a few calls at work from people who live under the delusion that dispatchers are centers of information. I found the Monroe County Emergency Management page was easy to read well laid out and packed with information. So when Anxious Vacationer called I went to the page which you will now bookmark and promise me you will never ever bother dispatch with questions about whether or not you should come on vacation in the face of a storm. Or whether to evacuate or will the storm hit us or any other of the vague haunting feelings of inadequacy that strike the hearts of the uninitiated. If you don't have a camper van make a hotel reservation within a day's drive and try to make it for your likely evacuation date. then go stay in a  hotel and see what happens.

The advice business is not my thing but the advice I try to give  when I'm pushed into a corner goes like this: I start by trying to understand the questioner just a little bit. Are you a Disney vacationer? Someone who expects no adventure, perfect room service and all attractions like all menu items available exactly as promised? Or do you rate a vacation a success if you come away feeling like you accomplished something, learned something and felt a jolt of excitement? Do you get pissed if the lights go out? 

This isn't a right or wrong quiz, neither vacationer is better than the other but one of them won't feel good waking up in a "wind event" and they are the people who call dispatch at three in the morning and say "the lights went out..?"  My answer when I was on night shift was always "Do you have medical equipment that needs electricity?" After that you have to help the resort vacationer, even the one in an Air BnB come to terms with the fact that the lights will come back when they come back. My advice? Go back to sleep, which never pleased any of the worriers. Rest assured Keys Energy has put a lot of money into the power system and the lights don't go out very often at all. Actually there wasn't even a hint of an outage in this latest storm. And I never expected there to be one. 

Flooding. There's a thought to scare anyone, brown water filled with alligators and sewage swirling through your living room...the scenarios are enough to keep anyone awake as they listen to the storm arrive. Hurricane Wilma in 2005 wrecked Key West with flooding, backwash, rain and lots of terrified 911 calls. We'd seen New Orleans sink under Hurricane Katrina a few months (and several hurricane letters) previously and it was chilling. I studied that storm and spoke to old timers who had known flooding was in the cards. East winds from Mexico flood Key West and I have watched that pattern ever since and it has held true. Pay attention because if a storm comes from the Yucatan to Key West expect flooding and get serious with your sand bags, something like what you see above at CVS.

140 mile an hour winds break all the rules. My rented home on Cudjoe got 7 foot surge when Hurricane Irma landed from the south, breaking the previous rule wide open.  Part of hurricane preparation is learning to understand storms as they approach. Speed of approach, intensity, tightness of the whirl and listening to the government's weather people. All the colorful amateur dramatics you see on weather channels and websites come from the experts at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Watch the videos and the colorful graphics for fun but rely on the NHC.

The final commandment is don't be stupid. Before a storm arrives the blowhards and drunks and partiers will be full of advice and bravery and experience ready to share. When the wind starts to pick up and the time is past for decision making their advice and bravado falls away and you are on your own. Preparation is the most important element of any endeavor and hurricane preparation will allow you to face whatever happens with an inner calm. You may not get it right but you paid attention and did your best. I knew Eta was not a property threatening storm but I put away outside furniture and even though we didn't secure our hurricane shutters we did try to make sure nothing would blow away. I've got good at this because when the threat is serious, typically I get locked down at work and cannot do anything at the last minute as I am not allowed to leave the police station prior to the storm's arrival.

Waiting for Hurricane Irma my wife and dog were safe in Pensacola evacuated as soon as the schools closed (hint: leave the Keys as soon as the district closes the schools) so they were gone before everyone else. So when Florida was stalled in a statewide traffic jam, choked in long lines at empty gas stations they were snug and 800 miles away. I had two days at home with everything put away and a hollow feeling in my stomach. We knew the storm was going to be awful and I looked around wondering what it would be like in a week, and it was indeed a terrible time recovering from Hurricane Irma, but prior to its arrival we had done everything we could and there was nothing left to do. I went swimming in the canal, ordered pizza just before they closed, and opened a bottle of wine. Three days went by. My neighborhood was wrecked, I had to flush the police station toilets by hand for a week (don't ask) and my car was destroyed. No regrets as I had done what I could. Oh and Rusty was safe. Very important that!

Before this little storm arrived someone asked me if they should borrow a friend's upstairs guest unit for the duration. I said I don't think it will be necessary but if you want a good night's rest go for it. Make the decision early, act on it and don't second guess yourself. They chose to leave their ground floor unit and slept there through the light winds and rain of Hurricane Eta. They made the right choice and acted on it and when next I see them they will tell me they slept well. No better way to get through a hurricane of any category.

Pay attention, prepare and be an adult. Easy peasy. Don't refer to storms by gender as their names identify natural events not gonads. Remember, and this is important, government building codes work. Deaths from weather events in developing countries far outnumber deaths in the US. Check out the statistics. We build our buildings right and for the most part wind doesn't blow them down. Hurricanes spawn tornadoes and they are the source of most damage within a broader hurricane.

Hurricanes are ruinous economically but in this country they don't kill, not nearly as much as fires, landslides tornadoes and whatever else. With modern forecasting and excellent communication, strong buildings and lots of planning experience hurricanes are not fearsome. If you plan and think Death is a possibility but it is not likely.

Years ago I figured out a way to find my comfort zone limits. After a short lifetime, (in my 20s) of being told constantly I was going too far the naysayers led me to ask myself a simple question: What's the worst that could happen? Then I dig into the worst possible outcome. Then I ask myself: How much will I regret that outcome? Then I have my answer so even now (decades later!) when people tell me I'm doing the wrong thing I make my own judgements based on the worst possible outcome. My form of risk assessment. Ever since my failures have left me shrugging, struggling sometimes and an emotional wreck from time to time but that's life!  Hurricanes? Annoying and in this case I've merely lost a weekend off to wind rain and weather I can't stand.

This weekend has reminded me of my weakness and I have to think it through. I hate rain, I don't like being cold and I am fussy about my quota of sunshine. If we are to travel far and wide I need to get over it. This hasn't been a cold weekend but I haven't sweat in three days and I'm wearing a t shirt under my shirt, Lovely, right? Summer is over. My wife is pondering where we are going to store our winter clothes in the van. Wait, what? Winter...clothes...Right. We can't go far and wide without winter clothes. I need to come to grips with this. Thank you Eta for reminding me. Hurricanes are as nothing compared with frostbite. Heaven help me.

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In order that I may not sound like a blow hard myself I should point out I have sat through every storm since the summer of 2004, and most recently that all culminated in the arrival of Hurricane Irma right over my house actually with 140 mph winds. My house survived but there was a great deal of damage. That you may judge my experience for yourself I have laid out some of my writings and photographs from that difficult time:

Hurricane Irma September 2017:

The Calm Before The Storm

Omega Man Before Irma

First Word

After The Storm

Key West After

Recovery 

Upper Keys Recovery

Getting Around After Irma

Marathon Recovery 

Key West Irma Effects

Some photos of my experiences in my most recent storm in 2017. First is the worst damage in Key West which occurred at Willie T's bar on Duval Street, soon fully recovered:

Rainy Day Blues

Self pity is an ugly thing, a mood best shared with no one, except perhaps your dog, and even he doesn't amount to much as a rainy day for Rusty the wonder dog means nothing. When I first got him four and a half years ago (!) from thisisthedog in Homestead he hated the rain and tried to hide from it, a reaction I suspect from too many years spent in a back yard and on the street without shelter. These days he braves rain fearlessly, sure in the knowledge there is a towel and a dry bed waiting for him after his exertions. It's very annoying as I tend to melt in the rain and I preferred his fear of the wet.

Luckily I have hands and I can hold an umbrella so the new improved waterproof Rusty can't stop me from following behind him. The fact is every single day off I have had all summer has been spent under a dark rainy cloud. I'm not speaking metaphorically, nor am I referring to some depressive state of mind, I mean the phrase literally as we used to say before young people took the word "literal" and beat it to death in every inappropriate way.

Every day off I have had to deal with summer rains. I was at work on Friday looking out the window at blue skies, fresh breezes and puffy white clouds, but sure enough as six pm approached the black stripe on the horizon expanded and the closer I drove to my home 23 miles away, the darker the sky got. This weekend, my weekend off is a zinger: we have an actual tropical storm warning, The power of my days off!

If you were a halfway decent listener you would feel sorrow and a mild form of pity for me, but I know the only person who knows how to throw me a pity party is me. We had planned a Friday night in Miami in the van, some light shopping on Saturday and return Saturday evening in time for another overtime shift today. 

To drive to Miami with a promise of 40 mph winds and several inches of rain all day seemed in stupid. Especially as my wife would have to clean up the van alone while I am off earning overtime...That plan went over like a lead balloon as you might imagine and with my aversion to wet weather I couldn't see us teaching Rusty to have fun while living under a thundercloud. Poor me! Poor me! We stayed home and opened a bottle of wine.

We broke out some food we had bought and frozen on our summer road trip so we recreated a moment on the road while listening to the skies crack and boom and light up the canal behind the house. Aside from learning to enjoy rain, Rusty has also learned to not mind thunder too much. Far from running to the smallest darkest room he contents himself with looking anxious while hunkering down in his living room bed.

Rainy season is weird in Florida as it falls in summer a time of greatest heat and humidity. If you move here from Up North you will rejoice in winter if you aren't fond of snow and mist, but summers will confuse you. It looks like a damp nasty November outside but when you step out your glasses fog up and the hot humid air collapses over you like a furry fire blanket trying to suffocate you. Here there is no hint of cold damp Fall days leading up to Christmas.

September is the most frustrating month as you'd expect summer's heat regimen to be dropping away but it doesn't. September comes and goes as hot and humid as August with the added benefit of hurricane season reaching its peak of activity. Dry cool winter doesn't kick in properly until the second cold front which passes through usually in early November. There is plenty of time for me to have more days off turned into soggy days at home. Just my luck.

And then you drive home with a soaking wet happy dog with his tongue hanging down to his knees, your bottom wet and cold pressing into the leather of the car seat and not in a good way and you see Venture Out at the end of Spanish Main, the huge flagpole a landmark from miles away. And then of course you are forced to think how lucky you are and how dreadfully unlucky some people are. A wet damp day off doesn't always seem so bad, as it turns out.

Tropical Storm Winds

With Tropical Storm Laura passing about 150 miles east of Key West even before clearing Cuba's west end, the wind made itself felt.

Key West has always done well in these situations thanks to the reef, which keeps coastal waters shallow and tries to break up wave action. However it's not a seawall and energy reaches the land one way or another.

There has been a long standing joke in Key West that the White Street Pier is the stump of the bridge to Cuba, closed by sanctions. It's not true of course but it raises the occasional tourist eyebrow and represents  some of what we miss by being cut off from that island. On days like yesterday the sense of isolation was enhanced by the seas boiling.

There is a certain pleasure when the weather is like this, as there is no threat from a direct hit by an actual hurricane with all the drama and chaos that brings, but like this we can be reminded of how we survive violence in nature and eventually overcome. That feels good.

It's vulnerable living close to sea level with a scheduled hurricane season for half of each year. We are coming into the busy month so the fact that Tropical Storm Laura is passing us by en route to dusting the Gulf Coast is nice for now, but there is no guarantee as to the next circle of pain coming across the Atlantic. It could be our turn next and we all know it. Especially now that we hear the hurricane may land in Louisiana and Texas as a Category 4, just like Irma landed here in 2017...

The spray was flying over the seawall such that when I got home Gannet 2 got a hose down. I was extra glad my camper van had that undercoat I had applied in Miami. South Roosevelt Boulevard always gets salt water and sand and chaos when we take a direct hit from a storm. And usually boats duck and run for marinas or mangroves to get some protection. 

Instead the order to evacuate RVs mobile homes and boats has been rescinded by the county and liveaboards can luxuriate in the simple of act of survival.  With the rain blown through for a while, the skies clear and a setting sun to illuminate the scene being alive on a boat, be it ever so humble, can feel pretty damned good.

We had a call this past week for an ambulance for a man suffering downtown on the street. They took him away and later he died not alone but looked after, at least that. His sister called to try to figure out his personal effects from far out of state. I don't think he had much of great value but it was what she had to remember him by, including his much loved bicycle.  His bicycle. I directed her to the proper place to find his property and she left me sitting there wondering about what we leave behind. A bicycle in Key West is a valuable tool, a way to get around even in the face of strong winds and heavy seas. I hope his sister knows her brother depended on his humble bike. I rather suspect she does and somehow she will be reunited with that critical vestige of her late brother's life. I wonder where else in America a cheap beach bike is a valued heirloom. I wish it were true in more places. This guy was pushing hard against Tropical Storm Laura and reminded me of the value of decent bike.

I had to take the van to work as the Fiat after 106,000 miles decided to burst a brake line. I am a quick study with a hand brake so I didn't crash.  I got it to a safe parking spot at work so that later the wrecker could  haul to the shop. Thank you Triple A.

I like driving the van, high up and ponderous and no one cuts this tank off as I bowl down the road towards them.  I will be glad to get the 40 mpg Fiat back, for my commute later this week.

I am ready for the wind to die down, the seas to stay where they belong for now,  and no more storms for the next couple of months. That would be nice. Naturally we wouldn't mind if these two storms spare serious damage to their next targets in Louisiana and Texas.

May we always be so lucky to get a. nice refreshing breeze and some photogenic waves.