Tropical Storm Elsa

I am not one to underrate the power of a tropical weather system as I have seen enough of them blow over to know how bad they can be. But Tropical Storm Elsa has done not much to impress me.

After a fast gallop across the Atlantic the storm slowed down, passed over land masses in the Caribbean and after one moment as an actual hurricane, the tropical storm has stayed well under 74 mph. 

I must say I have been impressed by our community leadership facing off against this potential buzz kill. After a year of pandemic tourism starvation no one wanted to see Fourth of July wrecked by some rain so the response to the threat was muted. An advised evacuation of mobile homes they said, suggesting residents stay with people in more solid homes. 

Years ago the threat of a storm led to shut downs, evacuations and a loss of business. Then the storm blew through and nothing much happened. That got old. 

We've had some crappy storms. Wilma in 2005 followed Katrina which sideswiped the keys and destroyed New Orleans so when we had flooding later that year we were all bit freaked out. There was money in those days before 2008 and car dealers set up tents on Stock island to help replace the ten thousand cars drowned by Wilma. Trash was everywhere but it was nothing compared to Irma in 2017. That was a hurricane for the ages and that I don't want to live through again.

Tropical Storm Elsa is scheduled to arrive overnight between Monday, yesterday and today Tuesday. 50 mph winds over Cuba may strengthen a bit but the National Hurricane Center in Miami says the eye of the storm will slide westward and pass over the Marquesas Keys 15 miles west of Key West.

Tourists have been leaving for sure, RVs and boats on trailers have headed for the mainland but this isn't an evacuation situation. I worked overtime this weekend and we got a few calls from people wondering if the Keys were evacuated. Really? Gas stations have been busy but a tropical storm of these proportions didn't stop fireworks on the fourth (and Rusty was none too happy about that).

And yet we see people parking their cars on the approaches to the bridges on the Overseas Highway. This is a tactic deployed to get cars above potential flooding when conditions merit. Even if we get the full six inches of rain predicted this doesn't seem necessary to me. Whatever they want, hurricane preparation is more to make people feel better than to actually out-think a force of nature.

I looked south on my way home from my last dog walk with Rusty (we got soaked in a sudden shower which didn't stop us) the seas were flat as expected. Havana was getting the rain and we were getting a little wind. 

I had thought about spending the night at work so I drove in aboard Gannet 2 thinking I might hunker in the van and be at work for my six o'clock shift Tuesday morning. In the event the afternoon was so still and calm and utterly dull I would have felt like a total idiot setting up camp with a Lean Cuisine in the police station parking lot with my wife, my dog and a proper kitchen with pork chops and roast potatoes 25 miles away. I drove home.

I drove in to work this morning at five in the expected rain and wind and the Fiat 500 handled the conditions just fine. It was actually quite pleasant having the Overseas Highway to myself. Put some rain on the road and everyone starts to act like it's a snowdrift crawling along and peering through the windshield like modern tires can't handle rain . City offices are closed and most people get a post Fourth of July pause today. As usual the National Hurricane Center predictions came through, furthermore we never even had a power outage as Keys Energy has built a system designed to brush off mere tropical storms. They are now warning of floods on the mainland and I see pictures of people stuffing sandbags. Much fun no doubt.

I hope Tropical Storm Elsa is the worst we get between now and November.

17 Years

I was moved this week to take a few snaps at work when I was lucky enough to get a break and go for a walk. The nationwide staffing shortages have struck like everywhere and have to manage the 911 center this year with a less than ideal number of operators. Breaks have become a luxury.  The police parking lot:

I was hired July 5th 2004 and my plan at the time was to quit being a charter boat captain and get a proper job long enough to qualify for a mortgage with a regular income. I had no idea I was entering a life changing career that assured me a comfortable old age while at the same time giving me a secure job in a notoriously tough job market in an ever more expensive resort town. How it all worked out is a bit of a mystery to me.  Our regular deliveries of bottled drinking water for a hundred employees shown below. Hurricane supplies are a whole different level of organization but managing a police department requires more than driving around in a police car. The level of detail required to keep functioning would boggle your mind. 

It is a strange time to work for the police, even as a modest civilian, in the US. Key West has a very modest share of violence and severe crime so much of the police work is dealing with drunks, petty thieves, neighbor complaints, lost tourists, and local characters who may or may not inhabit the same planet as the rest of us. Most of the work is horribly unglamorous, the stuff television never portrays, the report writing, crafting words that will tell the story and stand up in court:

A job will always produce personality conflicts and clashes and resentments and jealousies, yet after 17 years of showing up to do one of the most stressful jobs in the building (by everyone else's account) I still like sitting down at my desk and seeing what 911 will bring that day. Some days I feel like I actually did help, some days go by in a  blur of paperwork and irritated callers, pretty much like any office job. Some days you get the gruesome calls you need to forget, or you get to peer into the world of people who are real criminals, societal failures who desperately need to be behind bars. Either a)  the stairway to heaven or b) more prosaically the flat roof access ladder.

Most people in Key West come to party and live in the after glow of Bohemian artists and performers in a  city with a reputation for being different. I ended up in a virtual straitjacket at the police department which suited me just fine. I liked the structure and the routine, I was tired of drunks and harbor rats slurring their way through life as though they were somehow alternative and cool.  I was in my mid 40's and I'd lived the university life in California and my wife who had traded being an attorney for a teacher, had a plan. She did not want to end up a bag lady so  after we went sailing around Central America, she made a deal with me to earn a  pension. I learned to give CPR over the phone and I even helped a few women give birth  as well as reassuring the dying who waited for an ambulance. I  trained to use one of these and though I have given first aid in person I’ve never had to use one:

I could never have survived in another city, another dispatch center and I dare say another police department. Key West gave me a chance and through all the struggles and the steep learning curve I got the support to make a go of it. I learned to talk police talk and to give officers the support they needed. I had no idea what I was getting into 17 years ago but I got the guidance I needed to make it out the other end. I wake up some days and realize with some shock I never expected to have one job in one place, certainly not Key West and yet...here it is. Done and dusted. 

During my accident and recovery the police department gave the best benefits, medical and emotional. They took care of my wife, officers donated sick leave to supplement the four and a half months of leave I had accumulated so I was off work for six months and never missed a paycheck. I listen to my young colleagues moaning about inconsequential irritations and wonder what they expect from a job. The generator which has roared through all the hurricanes I have sat through during these years is tested from time to time to make sure 911 never sleeps:

This room has been home for a quarter of my life. I am ready to move on and see the world on the journey that was interrupted by my wife's common sense. I am pleased I did it, and grateful to the people who work here for putting up with me, and I shall miss them. But I am ready to take the lessons learned here and carry them with me on the road ahead. From taking complaints from outraged citizens about sleepers in vans  I shall do my best not to draw attention to myself and be the cause of those complaints in other towns in other countries. I can't wait to hear a siren in the streets and sigh with relief that it's not my problem. I hope the trainees  I see coming in to replace me understand how fortunate they are. I was so lucky to get hired and now it's their turn. The road beckons and I shan't look over my shoulder as my time is done.

The Glorious 4th

I just can't make up my mind if  we should be at least slightly reverential or does anything go when it comes to national holidays?

I like Thanksgiving best of all, a holiday packed with wholesome emotion, surrounded by raw commerce and loaded with historical debate for sure, but the holiday itself is nothing more complicated than food family and friends which makes it the perfect secular celebration.

The Glorious Fourth of July comes a close second for me, as no one can argue with barbecue and picnics as a form of public celebration. More importantly for me, the holiday marks the creation of a unique form of government which yes, has had its ups and downs over the centuries but remains an ideal sometimes more elusive than others. I like the Fourth for its history and the hope that it embodies. I'm not fond of the cheap commercialism and my dog hates the fireworks which make this a difficult holiday to enjoy properly. He stays in bed and ignores the world, from which I try to shield him.

Gratuitous Rusty picture from happier days at the beach. 

Happy Fourth of July.

The Great Convergence

We travel into the holiday weekend with all sorts of odd prospects before us in the Keys.

Hurricane Elsa is moving forward at last report at nearly 30 miles per hour while at the same time increasing in strength as though the storm were moving forward at five miles per hour. That's how it used to work, slow forward motion equaled  increasing strength. Nowadays the storms move fast and power up at the same time. Weird and slightly scary.

Even though it is apparent rain and wind will be here early next week, life goes on as normal, if such a status exists anymore. Normal last year meant no public gatherings but this year  gatherings, parties and fireworks are the order of the holiday. Except...

...except Elsa, the hurricane that is converging with the Keys and the Fourth of July. The betting at the moment is that picnics boating and fireworks will all be done by the time the wind and rain starts sometime Monday night.

My wife and I discussed our options and there are none. There seems no reason at this point for her to take the van with Rusty and head north. The storm looks like it will be curving over the Keys and into the Florida mainland exactly where she would be driving. 

We have to hope Hurricane Elsa will stay a Category One or less and aside form wind and rain we will be back to normal Tuesday afternoon. If not we shall be unlucky and I dare say quite surprised.  

By Tuesday the city commission expects to be sitting in Key West to discuss cruise ships. There is a belief they will return to Florida in August and the Governor has overridden the local vote to limit cruise ship size in Key West. He got a million dollar donation from businessman Joe Walsh and money talks when the money asked for the state to restore the status quo ante. So the city voted to keep passenger numbers in town and the freedom loving Governor said sorry no, your local vote doesn't count. I have no dog in this hunt but I am surprised when the cry of freedom is curtailed by no, not that freedom!

I suppose the city commission can talk but it will go nowhere so more interesting is the Governor's opposition to proof of vaccine requirements which conflicts with cruise ship rules. They  want to have proof of vaccine to make passengers feel safe aboard. Florida's business-loving Governor wants to prohibit businesses from demanding proof of vaccine so the cruise ship companies are now debating the value of loading unvaccinated passengers in Florida. This sure is a weird time to be alive.

I am working overtime this weekend. We have 15 paid positions in dispatch and we have just seven dispatchers so there is overtime to spare and I work each day this weekend. This time next year I hope we will be hunkering somewhere quiet in coastal Alaska where we can screen Rusty from the fireworks. I'd like to be in Alaska for Canada  Day and cross into Canada three days later for the fourth but that might be a bit much to organize. This year we will probably keep Rusty close on the bed and turn the television up loud hoping he doesn't notice the noise.

He has his own PTSD from his time living alone in the Everglades and being hunted by farmers with guns who killed off the rest of his pack. He copes much better with gunfire nowadays but the noise still freaks him out even though he no longer runs for the darkest corner of the bathroom where he was inconsolable for hours. Nowadays he huddles with us and we can feel him trembling. 

So we have fireworks and a hurricane and a holiday to cope with all at once. It's like the climactic scene of a movie, all the dramas come together. I figure I might well drive the van to work Sunday and sleep over if we get locked down before the storm arrives.  I wouldn't mind having my own space for a change and we've sat out sixty mile an hour winds already when traveling aboard Gannet 2. A Category One storm would be very lucky to cause much more than an annoyance. -

 And yet it is always a bit of a worry, wondering and waiting and asking oneself what will the return of cruise ships look like in the new Key West? So much to ponder, so little control.

Rusty sets  a good example by taking it as it comes. Whatever it is that converges on these strangely situated islands.
 

Sunset Street

It would have to be a callous joy one gets from reading about heat in other parts of the country when your own backyard is cold and wet and windy and very unseasonal. Certainly cooler weather in summer in the Keys is a thing of beauty but to read of people being killed by the heat wave Up North is unsettling. 

I cannot imagine 120 degrees and no air conditioning. I rejoice in the climate of the Keys, the place where it rains when it's hot, where winters are warm and well lighted and where summers rarely get to 100 degrees. This summer  strong east winds have kept us chilled and rain has been a welcome coolant this year coming in bursts and adding to the pleasure of a low key summer.

And then I read of calamitous drought in the west, no snow to melt no rain from the sky and underground sources of water drying up. I feel fortunate.

There is the not inconsiderable problem of sea level rise but for the time being a few roads go underwater a few months (!) out of the year and we pretend all is well. The day will come but it's not today and real estate prices continue their mad climb in the face of certain sea level rise. 

Seagrape season is upon us, the time of mellow fruitfulness when you can pluck little black grapes off the trees and suck the pulp off the huge pit in the middle. Soon the rural roads will have black splatter on the edges where the grapes have ripened and fallen. I find birds finish them off before I get a look in nut sometimes on my walks I get lucky and get a taste. I am hoping for the best this year.

Meanwhile we wait for summer to reveal itself properly. My wife has retired so she has no qualms about the start of teaching this August when schools are expected to go back to normal indoor teaching. Normal would be nice. 

A friend asked me what i thought about international travel in 2022 and I replied we have no plans to leave North America until 2023. It's possible things will be sorted out sooner but these new variants are causing unexpected lockdowns everywhere. I keep trying to remind myself the Spanish Flu (originating in Kansas) lasted three years before it burned itself out. We are doing better than that, so far.

Meanwhile check out these sunsets, lovely products of humidity in the air.

And of course I got used to the pandemic restrictions forcing me to see trees as origami silhouetted against the flaming sky.

We are lucky down here. 

We live well. 

My dog, my wife, my dog, my van, my camera, my great good fortune. 

Tropical Storm Elsa

There is a tendency especially in a  community occupied by many people unused to summer in the Keys to view hurricanes rather as though they are alligators. Some are slightly over confident around alligators and others are excessively spooked. Hurricanes, the other Florida stereotype, have a similar effect. Tropical Storm Elsa may be a lioness or a pussy cat but at this stage no one knows. 

July the Fifth, the projected day of landfall will mark my 18th (and final) year in dispatch, for I was entered into the Police Department books on July 5th 2004. I have sat through every single hurricane since then and I am sick of them. Next year if I am sitting in a  cold windy downpour on a muddy Alaska Highway and I get word of a storm in the Caribbean I shall rejoice at my good fortune, and cold rainy Alaskan summers days are something I rather dread at this stage of planning.

The prediction at this point ion the storm's progress is for a mild mannered windy tropical downpour to invest the Keys possibly avoiding the national holiday by a few short hours.  I suppose the idea at the moment is to celebrate, spend money and then scatter before the projected 65 mph winds and horizontal slashing rains sweep the islands. The much desired hope is for an arrival Monday night or Tuesday morning so celebrants will be evacuated or buttoned up well before the winds get noisy.

I am sure there will be all manner of predictions and projections as the storm gets closer. In the ordinary course of things a storm rated at Category One  or less  wouldn't pose much of a threat, especially after crossing the tall mountain range  in Cuba that sits astride it's course. Hurricanes (which do not actually have genders or personalities despite all evidence to the contrary) gain strength by traveling forwards slowly and so far Elsa has a forward speed of 25 miles per hour which is good for everyone concerned. The other thing is that the more they travel over land the more they lose strength. That's because the winds gain power from passing over warm waters.

For those reasons one has a right to hope that Tropical Storm Elsa might be little more than a spot of wind and rain on Tuesday, but there is the possible wrinkle of sudden intensification. My friend Webb who sails and monitors the weather has observed the phenomenon of sudden and severe intensification of  relatively mild storms.

I don't recall in the past a storm that came off Cuba as a Category One  a ("Cat" One in the hyper stressed jargon of modern hurricane aficionados) which multiplied into a Category Four in all those many years of sitting here and waiting to be smacked by a hurricane. Webb pointed out the phenomenon in the past couple of years of severe storms growing out of nowhere so I have decided to keep a close eye on these things.

It becomes a Pooh Bear routine all summer long if this is the track most summer hurricanes will follow the rest of the season, and the first storm tends to predict the popular path. Pooh and the Huny Pot come to mind in which he ate the honey from the pot and used the pot to store the broken balloon So just as he he put things in and then took them out, we do the same all hurricane season, putting things like garden furniture and plants inside out of harm's way, and then after the storm passes we take them out again.  Over and over again and keep hoping each time it's not Armageddon. I'd much rather face off against an alligator.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale for reference, call them cats if you want to sound hip: